PredictionMachine.com, a website that runs simulations to predict sporting results, ran a recent set of simulations of the NCAA tournament and came out with a potentially surprising champion: Creighton.
The site ran 50,000 simulations based on the most recent bracket set by ESPN’s Joe Lunardi. Creighton, a 3 seed in the South Region in the bracket, won the national title in 11.8 percent of the simulations. The Bluejays were predicted to reach the Final Four out of the South Region 30 percent of the time.
In Lunardi’s bracket, Creighton would open the tournament against Stephen F. Austin with a third round matchup against the winner of St. Louis-Cal. Without upsets, they’d face No. 2 seed Florida to reach the Elite Eight and No. 1 seed Wichita State to reach the Final Four.
The odds certainly don’t set Creighton as an overwhelming favorite, but is another sign that Creighton’s performance this season is impressing folks nationally.
How does it work? From the site: “The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted team and player stats (weighted slightly more toward recent games), to play, one possession at a time, every game 50,000 times before it’s actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the NCAA tournament. Each tournament is played individually, with the team that wins the game in that instance advancing.”